January 2015 Market Analysis

USDA Report & Market Highlights

  • Corn Summary – When the dust cleared, slightly friendly corn report with the USDA taking 2.4 bpa/191 mbu off its yield/production estimate. C/O 121 lower at 1.877 bbu, some 63 mbu below the trade average. SON feed/residual use 190 mbu below implied trade estimate. Implied BOY feed/residual # according to the USDA is about 450 mbu ABOVE LY.
  • Soybean Summary – USDA production estimate very near the trade average; c/o holds steady at 410; WASDE more or less embraces CONAB’s bean figure (95.5 versus 95.9); world stocks to build by over 910 mbu this year if S Am production and global use estimates hold.
  • Wheat Summary – Mixed bag as Dec. 1 stocks were above expectations but new-crop winter wheat acreage was lower than expected. Dec. 1 stocks of 1.525 Bbu implied lower-than-expected feed/residual use during Sept-November, primarily HRW. No change to exports, although sales and shipments continue to lag. Carry-out for all wheat up 33 mbu, with most of that increase seen in HRW (+26 million). New-crop winter wheat seedings were light of expectations. At 29.5 million acres, HRW seedings are forecast to be down 3% or about 1.0 million acres vs. last year. The USDA also projected a 1.0 million acre decline in SRW; 7.5 vs. 8.5, or 12%. Choppy with a focus gradually shifting to new-crop prospects both here and in other Northern Hemisphere production regions (e.g. FSU and EU).

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