February 2015 Market Analysis

USDA Report & Market Highlights

  • Corn Summary – Ending stocks were reduced 50 mbu on higher ethanol grind and lower feed use. At 1.827 bbu the figure was 10 above the average trade estimate of 1.817. The Argentine crop rose 1 MMT and Ukraine, 1.45 million. Exports will be closely watched with increased competition expected from Argentina and the Ukraine.
  • Soybean Summary – U.S. stocks came in at 385, 17 below the average trade estimate with crush up 15 and exports, 20 higher. The net change to the S AM estimate was zero with Argentina up 1 and Brazil down 1. Non-PRC SBM demand appears to be for real but still looking at a huge increase in global soybean inventories.
  • Wheat Summary – Estimates were in line with expectations with the exception of world carryout for 2014/15, which was higher-than-expected and continues to confirm ample supplies. An increase of 5 million bushels in the U.S. carryout to 692 mbu reflects a 25 mbu reduction in exports that was only partially offset by a 20 mbu decrease in imports. In the absence of any major world crop concerns, momentum seems to favor the downside.

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Grain analyst warns of leaner years ahead for Ontario growers

By Blair Andrews, QMI Agency

The next few years will be leaner when it comes to grain prices, a market analyst for an international feed and grain company warned Thursday at the Chatham-Kent Farm Show.

Bruce Trotter based his sobering outlook on a few factors, including lower growth expectations for China and the ethanol industry.

Trotter, who works in Blenheim as the managing director for the Canadian branch of Dutch-based Cefetra, said the era from 2006 to 2011 was a time of rising land prices and better crop margins driven by bio-fuel mandates and very high growth in China.

But the mandated growth in ethanol and bio-diesel is over, and he described the most recent years as an “ethanol hangover.” Read more