Corn field photo

Corn War? U.S. Farmers Say Mexico Needs American Corn

Some U.S. farmers say a Mexican lawmaker’s plans to introduce a new bill requiring the country to stop buying American corn and shift those purchases to South America seems more like tough talk than anything else.

Mexico currently buys nearly all its corn from the U.S., totaling a quarter of all U.S. corn exports. While it’s a big market, American corn farmers describe it as a mutually beneficial relationship.

“It’s not going to make sense for Read more

USDA building photo

CBOT weekly outlook: December corn seen as bellwether

Soybean rally seen unlikely anytime soon

CNS Canada — As traders wait for the U.S. Department of Agriculture to put out fresh acreage estimates for corn and soybeans this week some eyes have already shifted to the behaviour of certain deferred contracts in the market.

“If the December (corn) contract broke above US$4 (a bushel) it would be a catalyst,” said Scott Capinegro of HighGround Trading Group in Chicago.

That’s the point at which many producers expect to Read more

Tractor planting image

Will USDA Ag Outlook solve the corn acre debate?

The market is looking ahead to see how many fewer corn acres will be planted this spring.

Corn bulls are eager to see this weeks USDA Ag Outlook Forum data. The big question is how many acres of corn will be coming out of production? The over/under for U.S. planted corn acres seems to be right around 90 million.

The bulls are saying we will plant fewer than 90 million acres of corn, while the bears are suggesting perhaps a slightly higher number. I’m personally siding with the bulls, thinking many U.S. producers are looking for ways to further reduce cash-flow requirements. Which ultimately means Read more

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Maps show average corn and soybean yields

Corn and soybean producers faced dry weather in some areas last summer and yields varied across the province, but where faced low yields, Production Insurance helped out. A couple of areas were affected more severely by the dry weather and experienced yields lower than the historical average. Other parts of the province saw the highest […]

Photo of corn harvesting

Huge U.S. corn exports face hurdles from South American rivals

The United States appears well on its way to exporting the largest volume of corn in nine years, but there will be some hurdles to overcome in order to meet the full expectation for the season.

The United States is the world’s No. 1 source for corn and while not the primary form of domestic use, exports are crucial in keeping the supply from piling up, something that was a bit of an issue early on last season.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has 2.225 billion bushels (56.5 million tonnes) of corn slated to ship by Aug. 31. If realized, the 2016/17 season would rank as the fifth-largest U.S. corn export campaign of all time, behind 2007/08, 1979/80, 1980/81, and 1989/90. Read more

DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

UAN Fertilizers Higher Once Again

OMAHA (DTN) — A majority of retail fertilizer prices continue to push higher, according to fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the last week of January 2017. This marks the second consecutive week prices have been significantly higher, although prices have been trending higher much longer.

All but one of the eight major fertilizers were higher although only two were higher by any considerable amount. UAN28 was 8% higher compared to a month earlier while UAN32 was 6% more expensive. UAN28 had an average price of $236/ton while UAN32 was at $270/ton.

The remaining five fertilizers were slightly higher but not by a significant amount. MAP had an average price of $448/ton, potash $329/ton, urea $353/ton, 10-34-0 $439/ton and anhydrous $482/ton.

One lone fertilizer is slightly lower, but this move to the low side was not that notable. DAP had an average price of $430/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.29/lb.N, UAN28 $0.42/lb.N and UAN32 $0.42/lb.N.

While retail fertilizer prices may not be as low as they were a few weeks ago, they are still relatively low in the big picture view and university crop budgets continue to reflect this fact.

In a post from the Agricultural Economic Insights’ Blog titled “Why Soybean Acres Aren’t a Clear Winner in 2017” from Feb. 6 and written by David Widmar and Brent Gloy, the ag economists take a look at the different crop budgets from across the Corn Belt. They used crop budgets for the 2017 growing season for corn and soybeans from Iowa State University, the University of Illinois and Purdue University.

The changes in the cost of seed, fertilizer and crop protection from 2016 compared to 2013 are broken down in the post. Scroll down to find the link to this post.

Not surprisingly, fertilizer has seen large declines during this time. Iowa State estimates fertilizer will be down $59/acre in corn and $25/acre in beans while Illinois figured $57/acre less in corn and $42/acre less in beans and Purdue was at $73/acre lower in corn and $44/acre lower in beans.

“While fertilizer expenses have changed in all budgets — as one would expect given declining fertilizer prices — changes in seed and crop protection have also been impactful,” the report said.

While some may believe soybeans would hold a clear economic advantage in the 2017 growing season over corn production, the university crop budgets were not consistent with the assessments of which crop would fare better economically. The Purdue and Illinois crop budgets favored soybeans in 2017, while the Iowa State crop budget favored corn.

Differences in the crop budgets are not uncommon, the report said. It happened in 2014 when the Purdue budgets favored soybeans while Iowa State and Illinois both stated corn would be more profitable.

“When evaluating seed, fertilizer and crop protection expenses across the three university budgets, the adjustments were not consistent,” the report stated. “Inconsistencies in production costs adjustments are also likely common across farms too.”

To read the post and review the results, click on this link: http://bit.ly/…

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. All fertilizers but one are now double-digits lower.

The one fertilizer no longer down double-digits is urea, which is now down 5%. UAN28 is now 10% less expensive while MAP is 11% lower. Both DAP and UAN32 are 12% lower, anhydrous is 13% less expensive, potash is 14% less expensive and 10-34-0 is 20% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.


Source: DTN, by Russ Quin, DTN Staff Reporter

CBOT

CBOT weekly outlook: South American weather still key for soy, corn

CNS Canada — South American weather uncertainty is lending underlying support to soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade, with speculators likely to remain on the long side until production issues are more clearly sorted out, according to an analyst.

“The funds don’t want to give up the ship, and there’s enough of a weather concern in there for them to stay long and bid up,” said Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago on the buying interest in soybeans and corn. Read more