CBOT weekly outlook: Weather watching trade in summertime

Corn and soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are hanging in a seasonal weather-based market, with traders watching crop conditions week-to-week.

Corn

Corn futures have downside potential, gathering influence from wheat futures and crop ratings in the near term.

“I’m looking for an improvement in crop ratings next week, which might put a little light pressure on corn,” said Terry Reilly of Futures International.

The market had a support level at $3.7125, he added (all figures US$). Prices broke below that level on Wednesday.

Spreading between wheat and corn markets has also kept CBOT corn from rallying over the past several sessions, Reilly said.

Beneficial rains in parts of the eastern Corn Belt could add further pressure.

Despite the bearish factors, corn could stay in a choppy two-sided range in the near term, until crop conditions stabilize.

Areas of dryness in the western Corn Belt could also keep some support in the market.

Since last week, corn prices have dropped close to eight cents per bushel in the July contract, closing at $3.77 on Wednesday.

Soybeans

Soybeans are expected to trade in a wide range over the near term, Reilly said. He pegged that range between $9.15 and $9.50 a bushel.

“I think the bean conditions came in below expectations,” Reilly said. “But for now, we’re looking for an improvement, because there’s a lot of good rains coming along.”

Overall, he added, the soybean crop is in good shape, and is mostly planted.

Since last week, soybean prices gained one cent per bushel in the July contract, closing at $9.3175.


Source: Country Guide. Written by Jade Markus, Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.