Harvesting Soybeans

Big south american output casting long shadow

Wet weather may be slowing planting in the American Midwest, but the big crops expected in South America this year will continue to overhang the corn and soybean markets, according to a U.S. analyst.

Speaking last week as part of an MGEX-sponsored crop call, Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management, admitted the big numbers from South America suggest there’s little reason for Northern Hemisphere producers to expect any kind of significant price rally, especially given the fact the Brazil soybean harvest is now just about wrapped up.

Last week’s USDA supply-demand update further confirmed the big crops on the way from South America. In that report, the USDA raised its estimate of the 2016-17 Brazilian soybean crop to a record 111 million tonnes, up 3 million from the March forecast. At the same time, the USDA bumped its estimate of the Brazilian corn crop another 2 million tonnes higher to 93.5 million, an increase of 7 million from just two months ago and nearly 40% above last year

As for Argentina, forecasted soybean production was revised 500,000 tonnes higher to 56 million, still below last year’s 56.8 million tonnes. Based on reports of better-than-expected yields, the size of the Argentine corn crop was raised 1 million tonnes from March to 38.5 million, well above 29 million in 2015-16.

“The numbers we’re seeing right now in this report are saying ‘maybe not very much,’” Martinson replied, when asked about the likelihood of higher prices.

For here on out, market direction will depend on how spring planting goes in the US, and how the Argentina soybean harvest – which is still only in the beginning stages – eventually shakes out, Martinson added.

In a separate interview, Scott Capinegro, president of Barrington Commodity Brokers in Barrington, Ill., agreed there’s little upside potential for soybeans or corn, especially since South American is not experiencing the same kind of weather problems that limited production last year at this time – drought in Brazil and too much rain in Argentina.

“They don’t have problems this year they have a massive crop; that’s the whole darn thing.”


Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

Planting seeds in field photo

Weather uncertainty still supportive for soybeans

U.S. weather uncertainty will continue to be a source of support for downtrodden soybean futures, regardless of rising South American production prospects, according to a U.S. analyst.

“There appears to be a reluctance in getting short before planting and the growing season,” said Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago.

Chicago soybean futures actually fell to their lowest level of the past year earlier this week, but bounced off those lows as uncertainty about new-crop production and chart-based buying offered support. As the chart below shows, the May soybean contract fell heavily throughout March, dropping over US$1/bu before showing some mettle on Wednesday and early Thursday. Read more

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The dollar value of soil, world record wheat, and down pressure decisions

We’re racing towards planting season, with field activity about to begin rocking and rolling.

Lessons from the new world wheat yield record, the value of soil and subsequent impact of erosion, cover crop management, corn planter down pressure, and more — it’s all in this week’s edition of The Word the RealAg agronomist Peter Johnson.

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Click to listen to the audio recording from Real Agriculture.

Summary

  • The value of soil – assuming Ontario price of $20,000/acre. 2 million pounds in top 6″soil is worth 1 cent a pound. How much does it cost to lose to wind erosion (and other forms)? Snirt (soil off the snow) — a tonne/acre (COULD be 3 tonnes per acre and you don’t really KNOW). That’s 6,600 lbs. or $66/acre. Maybe up to $100/acre.
  • World record wheat — 250 bu/ac of wheat on 29 acres in New Zealand. What can we learn? First, it’s irrigated wheat. Tissue test for micronutrients — should you follow suit? Expensive when not needed. When needed, a huge benefit. Overload on vitamins equals expensive pee.
  • Wheat doesn’t like wet feet — tile drainage is one way to control. Do we underestimate the impact of excess moisture on wheat?
  • Seeding rate — reduce tillering to boost yield? Did it work? Not necessarily. Durum wheat seeding rate eg in North Dakota, targeting 1.4 million live plants/ac, what’s the math to working back to seeds per ac? 32 live plants/sq ft. That’s plenty high in dry climates, can use up soil moisture by plant growth. Germination and mortality must be factored in 5% in dry soils, but can be 20-25% in wet conditions in Ontario.
  • Nitrogen rates and calculating credit from previous crop and manure…
  • Straw plugging and fusarium problems with airdrill in Manitoba. Derek’s wondering if fall tillage should be more aggressive. Does more tillage break down more residue? Likely not. Could cause more plugging, first of all. Need to ensure rotation isn’t contributing to fusarium problem.
  • FHB in rye before potatoes — yes, rye also gets fusarium. Recommended 60 lb of N unless a hybrid.
  • Moist soils and N options — 50% urea, 50% treated with ESN scenario — in wet weather, side band has higher losses than a deep band (that’s because of soil bugs are closer to surface.) How does temperature contribute to urea gassing off and role for Agrotain?
  • Cover crops seeding into corn — which species? Annual ryegrass can tolerate shade from corn.
  • Seeding grass into RR alfalfa — grass seed will establish anytime there’s enough moisture. Kill weeds in alfalfa stand, broadcast orchardgrass a few days later. Less competition from alfalfa, the better for establishing grass.
  • Active down pressure on a corn planter  — is it really that big of a deal? Flag test data shows big yield implications of having every plant come up on time. On only 300 acres, very little yield impact when seeding under reasonable conditions. Big win is in tacky areas of field, which are hopefully less than 10 percent of field.

 


Source: Real Agriculture: Wheat Pete’s Word by Peter Johnson

Global Soybean Ending Stocks Up Sharply

Global and U.S. soybean ending stocks are continuing to trend higher, with the world estimate seeing a particularly sharp increase this month.

April 11, 2017 – In updated supply-demand estimates released Tuesday, the USDA raised its 2016-17 soybean ending stocks estimates from last month for both the U.S. and the world. Meanwhile, its average U.S. soybean price forecast ticked lower. Read more

Corn field photo

Global Corn Ending Stocks Build on Larger Crops

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2016-17 didn’t get any heavier this month, but global stocks did.

Updated supply-demand estimates released by the USDA on Tuesday pegged estimated worldwide corn ending stocks for the current marketing year at 222.98 million tonnes, up from 220.68 million last month and roughly 11 million above the previous year.

The bulk of the increase in global ending stocks can be attributed to higher global production, with the USDA once again raising its estimate of this year’s Brazilian crop, which is now seen at a whopping 93.5 million tonnes. That’s up from 91.5 million in March and represents an increase of 7 million tonnes from just two months ago. The latest Brazilian government data indicates Read more

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Optimism remains for U.S. soy exports amid Brazilian competition – Reuters

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.

By Karen Braun

CHICAGO, March 10 (Reuters) – U.S. soybean shippers may have been disappointed with demand revisions from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday, but there is good reason to maintain optimism over the domestic export outlook.

In its monthly supply and demand report, USDA reduced 2016/17 U.S. soybean exports to 2.025 billion bushels. This follows four straight months with the estimate having been unchanged at the 2.05 billion mark.

While the new figure still represents a 5 percent increase over the previous high set last year, the move is somewhat unprecedented as the U.S. agency has not made any cuts to domestic soybean exports later than January during the past three record-setting years.

The decrease in U.S. exports was not severe – only 25 million bushels or 680,000 tonnes – but given that global soybean demand actually Read more

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Naahii Ridge students learn about agriculture

February 16 was Canada’s Agriculture Day and the students at Naahii Ridge Public School in Ridgetown, Ontario, had the chance to celebrate the day with many volunteers from the agricultural community.

“Canada’s Ag Day was a great opportunity for us to talk to the students about why the Canadian Ag industry is so important,” says Amy Caron, Communications Specialist for Dow Seeds. “Dow Seeds was very fortunate to work with some great community volunteers to bring that message to the students at Naahii.”

Travis Roodzant from Thompsons Limited – Blacks Lane branch.

Photo from Canada Agriculture Day

Students from grades 4, 5 and 6 listened to presentations on the importance of the Ag industry and the various career opportunities this sector offers. The students then participated in the “Canada’s Ag Day Trade Show” where they travelled around the gym to various stations to talk to the volunteers about what they do in the Ag industry.

Students had the opportunity to talk to: Cara McCready, a Greenhouse IPM Specialist with OMAFRA who talked about beneficial pests and pest management; Jane Lawton from Chatham-Kent 4H about the organization and how to become involved; Janice Anderson from Pioneer about the importance of Women in Ag; Rob Reid, Dairy Education Center Manager, University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus, who spoke on what happens in a dairy barn; Grace Jones, a Dow Seeds Territory Sales Rep, spoke on the importance of business and crop planning with farmers; Travis Roodzant from Thompsons Limited talked to the kids about agronomy and the use of drones in that process; Madison Trozzi, a high school senior who completed her co-op in the Dow Seeds Seed Lab showed the science behind ag industry and Eric Bastiaansen, an egg farmer from Thedford talked about how your eggs get from his farm to your grocery store.

Pictured are the Canada Agriculture Day volunteers, left to right: Cara McCready, Travis Roodzant, Grace Jones, Madison Trozzi, Rob Reid, Jane Sawton, Janice Anderson, and Eric Batiaansen. Absent from photo was Cassi Boersma.

Ag Day in Ridgetown, Ontario photo

Students from Grades 1 to 3 didn’t miss out on the festivities. Cassi Boersma, a part time teacher with Naahii and the Farm Safety Coordinator for Ridgetown, spoke to this group of students about the importance of ATV and farm safety.

Other organizations who helped support this event were FCC, Ag in the Classroom and Agriculture More Than Ever.

“We only had a couple of hours to share our stories with these students,” says Caron. “However, there were some great questions and hopefully some great conversations around their dinner table that night.”

Click for more information on Canada’s Agriculture Day.


Source: Ridgetown Independent News – 1 Main Street, Ridgetown, ON (519) 674-5205.

Corn field photo

Corn War? U.S. Farmers Say Mexico Needs American Corn

Some U.S. farmers say a Mexican lawmaker’s plans to introduce a new bill requiring the country to stop buying American corn and shift those purchases to South America seems more like tough talk than anything else.

Mexico currently buys nearly all its corn from the U.S., totaling a quarter of all U.S. corn exports. While it’s a big market, American corn farmers describe it as a mutually beneficial relationship.

“It’s not going to make sense for Read more

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CBOT weekly outlook: December corn seen as bellwether

Soybean rally seen unlikely anytime soon

CNS Canada — As traders wait for the U.S. Department of Agriculture to put out fresh acreage estimates for corn and soybeans this week some eyes have already shifted to the behaviour of certain deferred contracts in the market.

“If the December (corn) contract broke above US$4 (a bushel) it would be a catalyst,” said Scott Capinegro of HighGround Trading Group in Chicago.

That’s the point at which many producers expect to Read more