Divide Between USDA, Trade Yield Estimates Mostly Due to Different Methodologies
In a ballgame eerily similar to last year, USDA threw a curve ball at the corn market Thursday. But unlike last August when the bulls were able to hit that bearish offering and close higher, this year they clearly swung and missed.
Late season nitrogen application has been a hot topic amongst farmers and uptake in this practice has increased in recent years. The expense and environmental impact has made growers think differently about nitrogen application.
Weather extremes has also caused growers to change the way they apply nitrogen to mitigate loses from excessive rainfall when applying all their nitrogen ahead of planting. Read more
Corn and soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are hanging in a seasonal weather-based market, with traders watching crop conditions week-to-week.
Corn futures have downside potential, gathering influence from wheat futures and crop ratings in the near term.
“I’m looking for an improvement in crop ratings next week, which might put a little light pressure on corn,” said Terry Reilly of Futures International.
The market had a support level at $3.7125, he added (all figures US$). Prices broke below that level on Wednesday.
Spreading between wheat and corn markets has also kept CBOT corn from rallying over the past several sessions, Reilly said. Read more
Current weather conditions are ideal for fusarium head blight development in winter wheat. Many wheat fields in Southwestern Ontario have applied a T3 fungicide to reduce their risk particularly if they are growing a FHB susceptible variety. T3 fungicide applications further east will begin this week and continuing into next week for Eastern Ontario. Read more
June 1, 2017
Winter wheat growth stages are relatively normal at this point in the season; the crop may have looked a bit ahead in weeks past but conditions have been relatively cool. Wheat is in head throughout Southwestern Ontario and beginning to head in western/central Ontario.
Some winter wheat fields are looking yellow, even where nitrogen and sulphur have been applied. It is expected that in most cases there is still nitrogen available, but that wheat fields are under stress from sitting in wet conditions for an extended period of time. Leaching below the root zone can occur, especially on light soils, with significant precipitation. Transpiration by the wheat crop, however, has helped reduce downward water (and nitrate) movement. Significant nitrogen leaching is not expected to have occurred in most wheat fields. Read more
To great anticipation, the USDA released its first weekly crop condition report for U.S. corn this week.
Ample precipitation this spring along with cooler than normal temperatures has made corn plantings a challenge this season, especially in the Missouri Valley and Eastern Corn Belt regions. This had raised questions about how the USDA would assess the crop in its initial crop ratings report. Read more
The USDA will report crop condition ratings for the 2017 U.S corn and soybean crops in the 18 major producing states in the weekly Crop Progress report beginning May 30 and continuing until harvest.
Weekly crop condition ratings have been made for all the major producing states since 1986. Market participants typically follow the crop condition ratings closely as an indication of crop health, yield potential, and change in yield potential as the growing season proceeds. Read more
Historical grain yields provide us with a glimpse of yields yet to come, although like the stock markets, past performance is no guarantee of the future. The historical yield data for corn in the U.S. illustrate the positive impact of improved crop genetics and crop production technologies.
From 1866, the first year USDA began to publish corn yield estimates, through about 1936, yields of open-pollinated corn varieties in the U.S. remained fairly stagnant and averaged about 26 bu/ac (1.6 MT/ha) throughout that 70-year period. Amazingly, the historical data indicate there was no appreciable change in productivity during that entire time period (Fig. 1), even though farmers’ seed-saving practices represented a form of Read more
Winter wheat is progressing well across the province. The winter wheat is mainly at early flag leaf (Zadok’s 37) to the swollen boot stage (Zadok’s 45-47), and some heading has been observed in Essex County. Disease pressure across the province is currently low, and fungicide applications are expected to start in the next week. Cereal leaf beetle is present, but Read more
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