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Harvesting Soybeans

Big south american output casting long shadow

Wet weather may be slowing planting in the American Midwest, but the big crops expected in South America this year will continue to overhang the corn and soybean markets, according to a U.S. analyst.

Speaking last week as part of an MGEX-sponsored crop call, Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management, admitted the big numbers from South America suggest there’s little reason for Northern Hemisphere producers to expect any kind of significant price rally, especially given the fact the Brazil soybean harvest is now just about wrapped up. Read more

Corn field photo

Global Corn Ending Stocks Build on Larger Crops

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2016-17 didn’t get any heavier this month, but global stocks did.

Updated supply-demand estimates released by the USDA on Tuesday pegged estimated worldwide corn ending stocks for the current marketing year at 222.98 million tonnes, up from 220.68 million last month and roughly 11 million above the previous year.

The bulk of the increase in global ending stocks can be attributed to higher global production, with the USDA once again raising its estimate of this year’s Brazilian crop, which is now seen at a whopping 93.5 million tonnes. That’s up from 91.5 million in March and represents an increase of 7 million tonnes from just two months ago. The latest Brazilian government data indicates Read more

Corn field photo

Corn War? U.S. Farmers Say Mexico Needs American Corn

Some U.S. farmers say a Mexican lawmaker’s plans to introduce a new bill requiring the country to stop buying American corn and shift those purchases to South America seems more like tough talk than anything else.

Mexico currently buys nearly all its corn from the U.S., totaling a quarter of all U.S. corn exports. While it’s a big market, American corn farmers describe it as a mutually beneficial relationship.

“It’s not going to make sense for Read more

USDA building photo

CBOT weekly outlook: December corn seen as bellwether

Soybean rally seen unlikely anytime soon

CNS Canada — As traders wait for the U.S. Department of Agriculture to put out fresh acreage estimates for corn and soybeans this week some eyes have already shifted to the behaviour of certain deferred contracts in the market.

“If the December (corn) contract broke above US$4 (a bushel) it would be a catalyst,” said Scott Capinegro of HighGround Trading Group in Chicago.

That’s the point at which many producers expect to Read more

Tractor planting image

Will USDA Ag Outlook solve the corn acre debate?

The market is looking ahead to see how many fewer corn acres will be planted this spring.

Corn bulls are eager to see this weeks USDA Ag Outlook Forum data. The big question is how many acres of corn will be coming out of production? The over/under for U.S. planted corn acres seems to be right around 90 million.

The bulls are saying we will plant fewer than 90 million acres of corn, while the bears are suggesting perhaps a slightly higher number. I’m personally siding with the bulls, thinking many U.S. producers are looking for ways to further reduce cash-flow requirements. Which ultimately means Read more

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Maps show average corn and soybean yields

Corn and soybean producers faced dry weather in some areas last summer and yields varied across the province, but where faced low yields, Production Insurance helped out. A couple of areas were affected more severely by the dry weather and experienced yields lower than the historical average. Other parts of the province saw the highest […]

Huge U.S. corn exports face hurdles from South American rivals

The United States appears well on its way to exporting the largest volume of corn in nine years, but there will be some hurdles to overcome in order to meet the full expectation for the season.

The United States is the world’s No. 1 source for corn and while not the primary form of domestic use, exports are crucial in keeping the supply from piling up, something that was a bit of an issue early on last season.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has 2.225 billion bushels (56.5 million tonnes) of corn slated to ship by Aug. 31. If realized, the 2016/17 season would rank as the fifth-largest U.S. corn export campaign of all time, behind 2007/08, 1979/80, 1980/81, and 1989/90. Read more

Record harvests of corn and soybeans that fortified bearish arguments in 2016

The big crops keep coming

With 2016 nearly in the history books, it seems fair to say that the year will be remembered for its record corn and soybean harvests. Never before has any country ever produced 15.23 billion bushels of corn or 4.36 bb of soybeans, let alone both in the same season.

Not only was 2016 a year of good harvest, it was the fourth consecutive year of good harvests and, because of that, ending surpluses grew larger. According to USDA, U.S. ending corn stocks will total 2.4 billion bushels in 2016-17 or 16.4% of annual use. That is the highest stocks-to-use ratio in 11 years, an impressive accomplishment that took DTN’s national index of cash corn prices below $3.00 a bushel in the fall to its lowest level in eight years. Read more

South America Calling

Favorable Rain Boosts Brazil Crops

Private Brazil crop analytical firm Safras and Mercado put a new benchmark on Brazil soybean production at the end of the week. The projection from this firm is 106 million metric tons — a new record and well-above the 96.50 mmt crop estimate for the 2016 harvest. The Safras projection is 4 mmt above the latest USDA figure in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Read more

CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn watch South American weather

CNS Canada — Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved lower during the week ended Wednesday, while corn held steady, with South American weather conditions expected to provide much of the direction going forward.

“We’re pretty much trading one weather report at a time,” said Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading in Chicago.

While dryness concerns in Argentina provided some support for soybeans in recent sessions, forecasts are improving in the major export nation. Early crop projections out of Brazil also remain large overall. Read more