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Planting seeds in field photo

Weather uncertainty still supportive for soybeans

U.S. weather uncertainty will continue to be a source of support for downtrodden soybean futures, regardless of rising South American production prospects, according to a U.S. analyst.

“There appears to be a reluctance in getting short before planting and the growing season,” said Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago.

Chicago soybean futures actually fell to their lowest level of the past year earlier this week, but bounced off those lows as uncertainty about new-crop production and chart-based buying offered support. As the chart below shows, the May soybean contract fell heavily throughout March, dropping over US$1/bu before showing some mettle on Wednesday and early Thursday. Read more

Soybean futures – will they outperform in 2017 too?

Soybean futures outperformed in 2016, rising for the first time in four years, by 14.4%, compared with a 1.9% decline in Chicago corn futures, and a 13.2% drop in wheat.

While the US harvested a record crop, demand has been strong too – supported by Chinese imports which also set a record high, with demand supported by a recovery in the fortunes of the country’s important hog producers.

Meanwhile, values of soybean oil have been supported by disappointing global output of rival palm oil, with the latest El Niño casting a long shadow over South East Asian production.

But will such factors continue to support soybean futures in 2017? Or will the US produce another record harvest to dampen price prospects?

Read more

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Canada Markets

Percent Change in January Grain Prices

With January 2017 just around the corner, here is a look at how futures markets for selected grains tend to act during the month, while considering the percent change in price over January on the continuous monthly chart. On average, over the past five years, both canola and corn futures tend to close higher in January, with the canola future averaging a 0.5% increase in January, while corn futures have average a 0.9% increase. Read more

CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn watch South American weather

CNS Canada — Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved lower during the week ended Wednesday, while corn held steady, with South American weather conditions expected to provide much of the direction going forward.

“We’re pretty much trading one weather report at a time,” said Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading in Chicago.

While dryness concerns in Argentina provided some support for soybeans in recent sessions, forecasts are improving in the major export nation. Early crop projections out of Brazil also remain large overall. Read more

US corn sowings ideas wane, as futures underperform

Investors appear to be trimming expectations for the growth US corn sowings this year, as a key report looms, with futures markets boost the incentive for farmers to raise plantings of rival soybeans.

Rabobank on Thursday forecast a rise of 1m-1.5m acres in US corn plantings, from the 88.4m acres seeded last year.

And separately, US-based Global Commodity Analytics, citing results of a limited farmer survey, pegged seedings at 89.4m acres.

Earlier this week, Societe Generale put corn seedings at 89.0m acres, while Informa Economics on Friady pegged area at 89.5m acres.

Although all these forecasts would see US farmers raise sowings of the grain for the first time in four years, the estimates are below the 90.0m acres at which the US Department of Agriculture pegged seedings in an initial estimate last month.

An Allendale report last week did come in with a more upbeat estimate for corn sowings, of 90.4m acres. Read more

Corn field photo

A weather market for corn in 2016?

Nearby corn futures remain above the early January lows, but continue to struggle under the weight of a number of negative market fundamental factors. Those negative factors include both supply and demand considerations. On the supply side, domestic corn production has been large for three consecutive years and the USDA now projects 2015-16 marketing year […]