Wet weather may be slowing planting in the American Midwest, but the big crops expected in South America this year will continue to overhang the corn and soybean markets, according to a U.S. analyst.
Speaking last week as part of an MGEX-sponsored crop call, Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management, admitted the big numbers from South America suggest there’s little reason for Northern Hemisphere producers to expect any kind of significant price rally, especially given the fact the Brazil soybean harvest is now just about wrapped up. Read more
Source: Reuters – Karen Braun (Karen Braun is a Reuters market analyst. Views expressed are her own.)
The United States will certainly harvest a huge corn crop in 2016, so it hardly matters if yield falls by a couple of bushels, right? Actually, it does.
Without dissecting the balance sheet and crunching the numbers, it might be hard to understand why slight variations in yield make a big difference in domestic supply.
Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected that domestic farmers will harvest 15.15 billion bushels of corn over the next couple of months, which would easily set a new record for the world’s leading corn supplier.
USDA also penciled in 2.409 billion bushels of corn carryover at the end of the 2016/17 marketing year, which began on Sept. 1. This would be the largest such volume since the late 1980s. Read more
The condition of the 2016 U.S. corn crop improved 1% last week to 76% rated good to excellent. Eight states indicated that the corn condition had improved, 8 states indicated that the corn condition had declined, and 2 states indicated no change in the corn condition. Most of the improvements were found in the central Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in southern and northern states. The top five rated corn states are: Read more
By Todd Hultman, DTN Grains Analyst
Normally, if you asked me what the most important USDA report was for soybeans, I would say the June 30 combination of Acreage and Grain Stocks. The two tell us a lot about the potential crop size and give a good read on how demand is going. Quite often, the June 30 reports set the tone for the rest of the growing season as they did in 2014. Read more
By Blair Andrews, QMI Agency
The next few years will be leaner when it comes to grain prices, a market analyst for an international feed and grain company warned Thursday at the Chatham-Kent Farm Show.
Bruce Trotter based his sobering outlook on a few factors, including lower growth expectations for China and the ethanol industry.
Trotter, who works in Blenheim as the managing director for the Canadian branch of Dutch-based Cefetra, said the era from 2006 to 2011 was a time of rising land prices and better crop margins driven by bio-fuel mandates and very high growth in China.
But the mandated growth in ethanol and bio-diesel is over, and he described the most recent years as an “ethanol hangover.” Read more
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