Posts

USDA building photo

CBOT weekly outlook: December corn seen as bellwether

Soybean rally seen unlikely anytime soon

CNS Canada — As traders wait for the U.S. Department of Agriculture to put out fresh acreage estimates for corn and soybeans this week some eyes have already shifted to the behaviour of certain deferred contracts in the market.

“If the December (corn) contract broke above US$4 (a bushel) it would be a catalyst,” said Scott Capinegro of HighGround Trading Group in Chicago.

That’s the point at which many producers expect to Read more

BrazilWeatherMap

South America Calling

Favorable Rain Boosts Brazil Crops

Private Brazil crop analytical firm Safras and Mercado put a new benchmark on Brazil soybean production at the end of the week. The projection from this firm is 106 million metric tons — a new record and well-above the 96.50 mmt crop estimate for the 2016 harvest. The Safras projection is 4 mmt above the latest USDA figure in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Read more

Grain Marketing

CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn watch South American weather

CNS Canada — Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved lower during the week ended Wednesday, while corn held steady, with South American weather conditions expected to provide much of the direction going forward.

“We’re pretty much trading one weather report at a time,” said Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading in Chicago.

While dryness concerns in Argentina provided some support for soybeans in recent sessions, forecasts are improving in the major export nation. Early crop projections out of Brazil also remain large overall. Read more

soyField

London soybean farmers hope to match record set by wheat crop

By John Miner, The London Free Press


After harvesting a record wheat crop earlier this summer, some farmers in the London region are looking at scoring a repeat with soybeans.

“Soybeans are much better than anyone anticipated. Many people in the London area are having record yields,” Peter Johnson, a Southwestern Ontario-based agronomist with Real Agriculture, said Wednesday.

Soybeans are Ontario’s biggest cash crop with sales in 2015 at the farm gate exceeding $1.4 billion. In Middlesex County, soybeans typically bring in more than $100 million a year.

While the London region and much of Southwestern Ontario fared well, it wasn’t the same story in the Niagara Peninsula where it remained dry through most of August. Read more

CornFieldSky800

2016 U.S. Crop Conditions Improve Last Week

Corn

The condition of the 2016 U.S. corn crop improved 1% last week to 76% rated good to excellent. Eight states indicated that the corn condition had improved, 8 states indicated that the corn condition had declined, and 2 states indicated no change in the corn condition. Most of the improvements were found in the central Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in southern and northern states. The top five rated corn states are: Read more

SoybeanField_800

Estimating Soybean Yield

Calculating soybean yields can be difficult. Plant spacing, soil types, environmental factors, insect and disease stress can all affect the final yield. Pod numbers, seeds per pod, and seed size will all control yield.

When do I begin counting?

The earliest time to begin yield counts is around R5-R6 stage with the R6 stage being preferred (a pod on any of the top four nodes of main stem full of seed.). By R6, all flowering will stop, pods have developed, and seeds in the pods are mostly filled. The accuracy of counts will always increase the closer you are to harvest.

Read more

WeedFreeTimimg_CornField800

Critical weed-free period

Weed-free period in corn In corn this period occurs from V1 to V6 (1 to 6 leaf collars). Some sources will mention that it even begins at the VE stage (emergence). During this time the corn crop needs to stay clean. Weeds will affect yield

market-analysis

January 2015 Market Analysis

USDA Report & Market Highlights

  • Corn Summary – When the dust cleared, slightly friendly corn report with the USDA taking 2.4 bpa/191 mbu off its yield/production estimate. C/O 121 lower at 1.877 bbu, some 63 mbu below the trade average. SON feed/residual use 190 mbu below implied trade estimate. Implied BOY feed/residual # according to the USDA is about 450 mbu ABOVE LY.
  • Soybean Summary – USDA production estimate very near the trade average; c/o holds steady at 410; WASDE more or less embraces CONAB’s bean figure (95.5 versus 95.9); world stocks to build by over 910 mbu this year if S Am production and global use estimates hold.
  • Wheat Summary – Mixed bag as Dec. 1 stocks were above expectations but new-crop winter wheat acreage was lower than expected. Dec. 1 stocks of 1.525 Bbu implied lower-than-expected feed/residual use during Sept-November, primarily HRW. No change to exports, although sales and shipments continue to lag. Carry-out for all wheat up 33 mbu, with most of that increase seen in HRW (+26 million). New-crop winter wheat seedings were light of expectations. At 29.5 million acres, HRW seedings are forecast to be down 3% or about 1.0 million acres vs. last year. The USDA also projected a 1.0 million acre decline in SRW; 7.5 vs. 8.5, or 12%. Choppy with a focus gradually shifting to new-crop prospects both here and in other Northern Hemisphere production regions (e.g. FSU and EU).

Read more