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wheat seedlings

Winter wheat condition holds for second week

The condition of the U.S. winter wheat crop held steady for the second straight week this past week.

Monday’s USDA crop progress report put the condition of the nationwide crop at 54% good to excellent as of Sunday, unchanged from a week earlier and 7 points behind last year. Crops in Kansas and Oklahoma were battered by severe weather over the weekend – including heavy snow in parts of the Read more

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Wet spring puts U.S. corn further at mercy of summer weather

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.)

By Karen Braun

CHICAGO, April 26 (Reuters) – The corn market is reminded every year about how crucial it is to have favorable summer weather in the United States, but that may be especially true this year, as an unusually wet spring could get the season off to a shaky start.

Traders have been somewhat hesitant to factor in wet U.S. weather and the potential for corn planting delays to futures prices, but the risk was evident enough on Tuesday, when July corn futures closed up 6-1/4 cents or 1.6 percent

The move followed the previous day’s crop progress report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which showed that U.S. corn planting was 17 percent complete as of April 23, ahead of the pre-report trade guess of 15 percent. Read more

Harvesting Soybeans

Big south american output casting long shadow

Wet weather may be slowing planting in the American Midwest, but the big crops expected in South America this year will continue to overhang the corn and soybean markets, according to a U.S. analyst.

Speaking last week as part of an MGEX-sponsored crop call, Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management, admitted the big numbers from South America suggest there’s little reason for Northern Hemisphere producers to expect any kind of significant price rally, especially given the fact the Brazil soybean harvest is now just about wrapped up. Read more

Global Soybean Ending Stocks Up Sharply

Global and U.S. soybean ending stocks are continuing to trend higher, with the world estimate seeing a particularly sharp increase this month.

April 11, 2017 – In updated supply-demand estimates released Tuesday, the USDA raised its 2016-17 soybean ending stocks estimates from last month for both the U.S. and the world. Meanwhile, its average U.S. soybean price forecast ticked lower. Read more

Corn field photo

Global Corn Ending Stocks Build on Larger Crops

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2016-17 didn’t get any heavier this month, but global stocks did.

Updated supply-demand estimates released by the USDA on Tuesday pegged estimated worldwide corn ending stocks for the current marketing year at 222.98 million tonnes, up from 220.68 million last month and roughly 11 million above the previous year.

The bulk of the increase in global ending stocks can be attributed to higher global production, with the USDA once again raising its estimate of this year’s Brazilian crop, which is now seen at a whopping 93.5 million tonnes. That’s up from 91.5 million in March and represents an increase of 7 million tonnes from just two months ago. The latest Brazilian government data indicates Read more

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Optimism remains for U.S. soy exports amid Brazilian competition – Reuters

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.

By Karen Braun

CHICAGO, March 10 (Reuters) – U.S. soybean shippers may have been disappointed with demand revisions from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday, but there is good reason to maintain optimism over the domestic export outlook.

In its monthly supply and demand report, USDA reduced 2016/17 U.S. soybean exports to 2.025 billion bushels. This follows four straight months with the estimate having been unchanged at the 2.05 billion mark.

While the new figure still represents a 5 percent increase over the previous high set last year, the move is somewhat unprecedented as the U.S. agency has not made any cuts to domestic soybean exports later than January during the past three record-setting years.

The decrease in U.S. exports was not severe – only 25 million bushels or 680,000 tonnes – but given that global soybean demand actually Read more

USDA building photo

CBOT weekly outlook: December corn seen as bellwether

Soybean rally seen unlikely anytime soon

CNS Canada — As traders wait for the U.S. Department of Agriculture to put out fresh acreage estimates for corn and soybeans this week some eyes have already shifted to the behaviour of certain deferred contracts in the market.

“If the December (corn) contract broke above US$4 (a bushel) it would be a catalyst,” said Scott Capinegro of HighGround Trading Group in Chicago.

That’s the point at which many producers expect to Read more

Tractor planting image

Will USDA Ag Outlook solve the corn acre debate?

The market is looking ahead to see how many fewer corn acres will be planted this spring.

Corn bulls are eager to see this weeks USDA Ag Outlook Forum data. The big question is how many acres of corn will be coming out of production? The over/under for U.S. planted corn acres seems to be right around 90 million.

The bulls are saying we will plant fewer than 90 million acres of corn, while the bears are suggesting perhaps a slightly higher number. I’m personally siding with the bulls, thinking many U.S. producers are looking for ways to further reduce cash-flow requirements. Which ultimately means Read more

CBOT

CBOT weekly outlook: South American weather still key for soy, corn

CNS Canada — South American weather uncertainty is lending underlying support to soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade, with speculators likely to remain on the long side until production issues are more clearly sorted out, according to an analyst.

“The funds don’t want to give up the ship, and there’s enough of a weather concern in there for them to stay long and bid up,” said Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago on the buying interest in soybeans and corn. Read more

CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn watch South American weather

CNS Canada — Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved lower during the week ended Wednesday, while corn held steady, with South American weather conditions expected to provide much of the direction going forward.

“We’re pretty much trading one weather report at a time,” said Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading in Chicago.

While dryness concerns in Argentina provided some support for soybeans in recent sessions, forecasts are improving in the major export nation. Early crop projections out of Brazil also remain large overall. Read more