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Harvesting Soybeans

Big south american output casting long shadow

Wet weather may be slowing planting in the American Midwest, but the big crops expected in South America this year will continue to overhang the corn and soybean markets, according to a U.S. analyst.

Speaking last week as part of an MGEX-sponsored crop call, Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management, admitted the big numbers from South America suggest there’s little reason for Northern Hemisphere producers to expect any kind of significant price rally, especially given the fact the Brazil soybean harvest is now just about wrapped up.

Last week’s USDA supply-demand update further confirmed the big crops on the way from South America. In that report, the USDA raised its estimate of the 2016-17 Brazilian soybean crop to a record 111 million tonnes, up 3 million from the March forecast. At the same time, the USDA bumped its estimate of the Brazilian corn crop another 2 million tonnes higher to 93.5 million, an increase of 7 million from just two months ago and nearly 40% above last year

As for Argentina, forecasted soybean production was revised 500,000 tonnes higher to 56 million, still below last year’s 56.8 million tonnes. Based on reports of better-than-expected yields, the size of the Argentine corn crop was raised 1 million tonnes from March to 38.5 million, well above 29 million in 2015-16.

“The numbers we’re seeing right now in this report are saying ‘maybe not very much,’” Martinson replied, when asked about the likelihood of higher prices.

For here on out, market direction will depend on how spring planting goes in the US, and how the Argentina soybean harvest – which is still only in the beginning stages – eventually shakes out, Martinson added.

In a separate interview, Scott Capinegro, president of Barrington Commodity Brokers in Barrington, Ill., agreed there’s little upside potential for soybeans or corn, especially since South American is not experiencing the same kind of weather problems that limited production last year at this time – drought in Brazil and too much rain in Argentina.

“They don’t have problems this year they have a massive crop; that’s the whole darn thing.”


Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

Global Soybean Ending Stocks Up Sharply

Global and U.S. soybean ending stocks are continuing to trend higher, with the world estimate seeing a particularly sharp increase this month.

April 11, 2017 – In updated supply-demand estimates released Tuesday, the USDA raised its 2016-17 soybean ending stocks estimates from last month for both the U.S. and the world. Meanwhile, its average U.S. soybean price forecast ticked lower. Read more

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Global Corn Ending Stocks Build on Larger Crops

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2016-17 didn’t get any heavier this month, but global stocks did.

Updated supply-demand estimates released by the USDA on Tuesday pegged estimated worldwide corn ending stocks for the current marketing year at 222.98 million tonnes, up from 220.68 million last month and roughly 11 million above the previous year.

The bulk of the increase in global ending stocks can be attributed to higher global production, with the USDA once again raising its estimate of this year’s Brazilian crop, which is now seen at a whopping 93.5 million tonnes. That’s up from 91.5 million in March and represents an increase of 7 million tonnes from just two months ago. The latest Brazilian government data indicates Read more

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Optimism remains for U.S. soy exports amid Brazilian competition – Reuters

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.

By Karen Braun

CHICAGO, March 10 (Reuters) – U.S. soybean shippers may have been disappointed with demand revisions from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday, but there is good reason to maintain optimism over the domestic export outlook.

In its monthly supply and demand report, USDA reduced 2016/17 U.S. soybean exports to 2.025 billion bushels. This follows four straight months with the estimate having been unchanged at the 2.05 billion mark.

While the new figure still represents a 5 percent increase over the previous high set last year, the move is somewhat unprecedented as the U.S. agency has not made any cuts to domestic soybean exports later than January during the past three record-setting years.

The decrease in U.S. exports was not severe – only 25 million bushels or 680,000 tonnes – but given that global soybean demand actually Read more

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CBOT weekly outlook: December corn seen as bellwether

Soybean rally seen unlikely anytime soon

CNS Canada — As traders wait for the U.S. Department of Agriculture to put out fresh acreage estimates for corn and soybeans this week some eyes have already shifted to the behaviour of certain deferred contracts in the market.

“If the December (corn) contract broke above US$4 (a bushel) it would be a catalyst,” said Scott Capinegro of HighGround Trading Group in Chicago.

That’s the point at which many producers expect to Read more

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Will USDA Ag Outlook solve the corn acre debate?

The market is looking ahead to see how many fewer corn acres will be planted this spring.

Corn bulls are eager to see this weeks USDA Ag Outlook Forum data. The big question is how many acres of corn will be coming out of production? The over/under for U.S. planted corn acres seems to be right around 90 million.

The bulls are saying we will plant fewer than 90 million acres of corn, while the bears are suggesting perhaps a slightly higher number. I’m personally siding with the bulls, thinking many U.S. producers are looking for ways to further reduce cash-flow requirements. Which ultimately means Read more

CBOT

CBOT weekly outlook: South American weather still key for soy, corn

CNS Canada — South American weather uncertainty is lending underlying support to soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade, with speculators likely to remain on the long side until production issues are more clearly sorted out, according to an analyst.

“The funds don’t want to give up the ship, and there’s enough of a weather concern in there for them to stay long and bid up,” said Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago on the buying interest in soybeans and corn. Read more

CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn watch South American weather

CNS Canada — Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved lower during the week ended Wednesday, while corn held steady, with South American weather conditions expected to provide much of the direction going forward.

“We’re pretty much trading one weather report at a time,” said Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading in Chicago.

While dryness concerns in Argentina provided some support for soybeans in recent sessions, forecasts are improving in the major export nation. Early crop projections out of Brazil also remain large overall. Read more

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Why every bushel of corn matters for U.S. balance sheet

Source: Reuters – Karen Braun (Karen Braun is a Reuters market analyst. Views expressed are her own.)


The United States will certainly harvest a huge corn crop in 2016, so it hardly matters if yield falls by a couple of bushels, right? Actually, it does.

Without dissecting the balance sheet and crunching the numbers, it might be hard to understand why slight variations in yield make a big difference in domestic supply.

Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected that domestic farmers will harvest 15.15 billion bushels of corn over the next couple of months, which would easily set a new record for the world’s leading corn supplier.

USDA also penciled in 2.409 billion bushels of corn carryover at the end of the 2016/17 marketing year, which began on Sept. 1. This would be the largest such volume since the late 1980s. Read more

Why we need to pay attention to early corn planting dates

By Kevin Van Trump

Corn traders are talking about the tendency for old-crop prices to peak prior to planting in years we are deemed to be in an over-supplied environment. Meaning the JUL16 contract might now be nearing the upper end of it’s range, possibly somewhere between our current price of $3.75 and $3.90 per bushel? There’s also more talk that most commercials have satisfied their appetite for old-crop supply. Meaning the basis in many parts of the country may continue to fall under pressure in the days ahead, especially if flat-price continues to move higher. Many commercials are saying they will take old-crop bushels, but only at discounted rates as they seem content simply waiting on new-crop supply to enter the pipe-line. Make certain you are factoring this into your marketing strategy. Technically we also seem to be approaching more heavier Read more