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CBOT

CBOT weekly outlook: South American weather still key for soy, corn

CNS Canada — South American weather uncertainty is lending underlying support to soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade, with speculators likely to remain on the long side until production issues are more clearly sorted out, according to an analyst.

“The funds don’t want to give up the ship, and there’s enough of a weather concern in there for them to stay long and bid up,” said Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago on the buying interest in soybeans and corn. Read more

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New forecast points to slow spring next year

CHICAGO, Ill. — Forecasters thought La Nina would be the major weather factor in 2017, but its looking more like La Nada, says Bryce Anderson, DTN’s senior agricultural meteorologist.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says the likelihood of a La Nina developing is now low. That viewpoint is shared by the U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, which is forecasting neutral conditions from January through March.

That opens the door for what Anderson calls the B-team of weather influencers: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

The PDO switched to a negative value in the fall of 2016, while the AMO has been positive since 1998. Read more

Grain Marketing

CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn watch South American weather

CNS Canada — Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved lower during the week ended Wednesday, while corn held steady, with South American weather conditions expected to provide much of the direction going forward.

“We’re pretty much trading one weather report at a time,” said Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading in Chicago.

While dryness concerns in Argentina provided some support for soybeans in recent sessions, forecasts are improving in the major export nation. Early crop projections out of Brazil also remain large overall. Read more

UnderseededClover

Six limiting factors in your soil that will make or break your operation

Soil, your primary infrastructure

Farms and grazing operations — organic or otherwise — are only as good as their worst resource, according to Oregon-based grazier Abe Collins.

“Soil is our primary infrastructure on the farm,” said Collins, who spoke at the recent Organic Alberta conference.

“Biologically, chemically, and physically, you need to be looking at the limiting factors in your soil.”

In the Canadian Prairies, water tends to be a key limiting factor when it comes to growing crops and forages — but there are others as well, said Collins.

This checklist covers off six other important factors that could mean the difference between success and failure on your farm. While Collins was speaking to an audience of organic producers, there’s plenty of good ideas for conventional growers to borrow too.

1. Year-long green

The first rule, says Collins, is “100 per cent covered soils 100 per cent of the time — never bare soil.

“Bare soil is a burn victim,” he said. 
 Read more

Grain Marketing

Why we need to pay attention to early corn planting dates

By Kevin Van Trump

Corn traders are talking about the tendency for old-crop prices to peak prior to planting in years we are deemed to be in an over-supplied environment. Meaning the JUL16 contract might now be nearing the upper end of it’s range, possibly somewhere between our current price of $3.75 and $3.90 per bushel? There’s also more talk that most commercials have satisfied their appetite for old-crop supply. Meaning the basis in many parts of the country may continue to fall under pressure in the days ahead, especially if flat-price continues to move higher. Many commercials are saying they will take old-crop bushels, but only at discounted rates as they seem content simply waiting on new-crop supply to enter the pipe-line. Make certain you are factoring this into your marketing strategy. Technically we also seem to be approaching more heavier Read more

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Environment Canada says more humidity to come for June and July

Looking ahead to the coming months, Environment Canada meteorologists expect there will be more heat and humidity than normal.

“We’ve already had a taste this month of temperatures getting close to the 30-degree mark and humidity making it feel more like the mid 30s. That looks like the shape of things to come for June and July,” said Geoff Coulson, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada.

Last year the usual summer heat wave to hit southern Ontario was missing in action with a lack of flow of warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, Coulson said.

This season southern Ontario has already tapped into that flow from the Gulf a couple of times with Humidex readings in many parts of Southwestern Ontario reaching the mid 30s.

Wheat field

Late Planted Winter Wheat

During years when soybeans are harvested later than expected or environmental conditions delay field work, winter wheat is generally skipped in the rotation or planting is rushed. When planting winter wheat later than the recommended planting dates, even more care should be taken to ensure yield potential is not lost.

Planting date

In general, delaying planting past the recommended planting window can cost a producer from 0.6 to 1.1 bu/day. It is best to strive to plant around these dates (See figure 1).

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Figure 1: Optimum Planting Dates in Ontario.

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