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La Niña weather condition map

La Niña is coming: Here’s what it means for commodity markets

MCHENRY, Ill. — If the La Niña weather phenomenon that’s forming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean reaches fruition, be prepared for wild commodity market rides.

La Niña impacts weather patterns worldwide and is associated with cooler, wetter conditions along the U.S.-Canadian border and warmer, drier conditions in much of the southern U.S. The phenomenon is caused by cooler Pacific water.

There’s no guarantee the La Niña will form, but if it does Erik Norland, CME Group executive director and senior economist, is concerned about the current agricultural markets.

“Corn, wheat and soy complex options implied volatilities are trading at or near record lows. This might mean that markets are woefully unprepared for a potential La Niña that would bring a wave of volatility,” he said in an Allendale Inc.-hosted webinar. Read more

CBOT building

CBOT weekly outlook: Weather watching trade in summertime

Corn and soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are hanging in a seasonal weather-based market, with traders watching crop conditions week-to-week.

Corn

Corn futures have downside potential, gathering influence from wheat futures and crop ratings in the near term.

“I’m looking for an improvement in crop ratings next week, which might put a little light pressure on corn,” said Terry Reilly of Futures International.

The market had a support level at $3.7125, he added (all figures US$). Prices broke below that level on Wednesday.

Spreading between wheat and corn markets has also kept CBOT corn from rallying over the past several sessions, Reilly said. Read more

Photo of soybean seedlings trying to break through soil crusted-over

OMAFRA Field Crop Report – June 8, 2017

Cereals

Current weather conditions are ideal for fusarium head blight development in winter wheat. Many wheat fields in Southwestern Ontario have applied a T3 fungicide to reduce their risk particularly if they are growing a FHB susceptible variety. T3 fungicide applications further east will begin this week and continuing into next week for Eastern Ontario. Read more

Summer Precipitation Canada Map

The next three months of summer weather

Tuesday, May 23, 2017, 8:43 PM | The Weather Network

How will a developing El Niño impact summer weather patterns across Canada? We have all the details below in The Weather Network’s 2017 Summer Weather Forecast, which covers the months of June, July, and August.

The Short Answer

Most people prefer a short and simple answer to their forecast questions. However, the pattern for the upcoming summer does not lend itself to a simple answer, as we expect a more changeable and active pattern across most of Canada. Read more

Corn field photo

U.S. corn yield limited if conditions land below 70 percent

Corn market participants often dismiss U.S. crop condition scores as meaningless, especially this early in the season. While they are still highly subject to change, the initial rating sets the tone for the growing season and can even cap yield potential – but do not expect a change to production outlooks just yet.

On Tuesday at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), the U.S. Department of Agriculture will issue the initial condition ratings of the domestic corn crop in its weekly crop progress report. The corn market typically focuses on the percentage of corn sitting in the “good” or “excellent” category, which is determined by an extensive network of observers who are surveyed Read more

flood damage in corn and wet fields

Tricky May forecast raises uncertainties for U.S. corn

CHICAGO, May 2 (Reuters) – The planting and emergence of the 2017 U.S. corn crop is right on schedule, but the weather might continue to present some unique challenges as May begins.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday placed corn plantings at 34 percent complete by April 30, identical to the five-year average but below last year’s 43 percent. Emergence stood at 9 percent, compared with an average of 8 percent, and 12 percent one year ago.

Even though the progress pace lines up with recent averages, an Read more

flood damage in corn and wet fields

Weak El Niño may mean wetter than normal summer Midwest weather

Commodity weather group forecasts wet summer will boost corn, soybean yields.

A weak El Niño pattern will develop in the Pacific, meaning there’s the likelihood of a wetter summer in the Midwest, Commodity Weather Group, the Bethesda, Maryland-based forecaster, said in a seasonal report Tuesday.

The wetter-than-normal weather likely will have a negative effect on planting but a positive impact on crops that get planted due to ample moisture, the forecaster said. The El Niño pattern will mean warmer waters near the Baja Peninsula and relatively cooler waters in the Pacific Northwest.

“The central (and) southwest Midwest is at most risk for slower-than-average corn (and) soy seeding, but rains aid moisture for the heart of the Corn Belt heading into summer,” CWG said in the report. “Summer temperature outlook trended warmer in the eastern U.S., but mostly unchanged in the Corn Belt, keeping the threat for notable Midwest-focused heat low this season.” Read more

Corn field photo

Wet spring puts U.S. corn further at mercy of summer weather

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.)

By Karen Braun

CHICAGO, April 26 (Reuters) – The corn market is reminded every year about how crucial it is to have favorable summer weather in the United States, but that may be especially true this year, as an unusually wet spring could get the season off to a shaky start.

Traders have been somewhat hesitant to factor in wet U.S. weather and the potential for corn planting delays to futures prices, but the risk was evident enough on Tuesday, when July corn futures closed up 6-1/4 cents or 1.6 percent

The move followed the previous day’s crop progress report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which showed that U.S. corn planting was 17 percent complete as of April 23, ahead of the pre-report trade guess of 15 percent. Read more

Harvesting Soybeans

Big south american output casting long shadow

Wet weather may be slowing planting in the American Midwest, but the big crops expected in South America this year will continue to overhang the corn and soybean markets, according to a U.S. analyst.

Speaking last week as part of an MGEX-sponsored crop call, Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management, admitted the big numbers from South America suggest there’s little reason for Northern Hemisphere producers to expect any kind of significant price rally, especially given the fact the Brazil soybean harvest is now just about wrapped up. Read more

Planting seeds in field photo

Weather uncertainty still supportive for soybeans

U.S. weather uncertainty will continue to be a source of support for downtrodden soybean futures, regardless of rising South American production prospects, according to a U.S. analyst.

“There appears to be a reluctance in getting short before planting and the growing season,” said Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago.

Chicago soybean futures actually fell to their lowest level of the past year earlier this week, but bounced off those lows as uncertainty about new-crop production and chart-based buying offered support. As the chart below shows, the May soybean contract fell heavily throughout March, dropping over US$1/bu before showing some mettle on Wednesday and early Thursday. Read more